Bodil Elmhagen

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Abstract

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra.

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930–1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.

Reference
Elmhagen B, Kindberg J, Hellström P, Angerbjörn A (2015) A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra. Ambio 44(Suppl. 1):39–50. Download pdf

This paper is published in a Special Issue of Ambio which features research carried out within the interdisciplinary research program at Stockholm University, Sweden.
Click here to check out the Special Issue, where all papers are available open access.

 

  
 
Examples of species which has shown periodic disruptions to a generally cyclic dynamics; grey-sided vole, Norwegian lemming, mountain hare and capercaillie.		  
 

Examples of southern species which have advanced their northern or altitudinal distribution limit since the 19th century; roe deer, Eurasian lynx, jackdaw and red fox.
 

Examples of northern species which have declined since the 19th century; rock ptarmigan, arctic fox, snowy owl and lesser white-fronted goose. The three latter were abundant in the late 19th century but critically endangered in the late 20th century.